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Survivorship Bias
In the early post-pandemic era, I was sitting in the synagogue (shul) one Saturday morning, at least 2 seats away from anyone else, my face covered by a mask. A hint of normalcy was beginning to return, and the Rabbi posed a question to the small number of congregants seated in front of him: Would […]
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On the Speed of Progress
From the first manned flight at Kittyhawk in 1903 until Neil Armstrong walked on the moon in 1969 was a mere 66 years. The progress in aviation from zero to manned rockets to the moon, and beyond to the era of reusable space shuttles was nothing short of remarkable. I was recently South Africa, the […]
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What is Machine Learning?
With the explosion in use and popularity of ChatGPT and the proliferation of AI tools I thought I’d attempt to demystify Machine Learning (ML) and give some simple insights into what it actually is and how it works.
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Anchoring
We like to think we are smarter than we are, as Daniel Kahnemann famously said, “Our comforting conviction that the world makes sense rests on a secure foundation: our unlimited ability to ignore our ignorance.” We like to think that we are above being caught out by ‘gimmicks’ and ‘tricks’, but in truth, the very […]
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Friendly Advice
What would you advise a friend to do? It turns out that the advice we give our friends is often very different to the advice we follow ourselves, according to a 2011 article published in the Journal of Marketing Research1. In a study carried out by Schwartz, Luce and Ariely, participants were split into two […]
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Smart Meters
“We can save 70 million trees if we all get a smart meter” In their advertising campaign, Smart Energy GB – a government-backed not-for-profit, claim that if we all installed smart meters, we can save 70 million trees. In a radio advert that aired in July 2018, Smart Energy GB claimed that consumers can save […]
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Struggling with self-control
I have recently concluded a 12-month mourning period for my late father. Over the last twelve months, I have woken early to attend morning services at the synagogue every day and to recite the mourners’ “kaddish”. I have also left my family eating dinner every evening to attend the evening service and say kaddish. These […]
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The Winner’s Curse
Auctions are particularly interesting from both an economic standpoint and a psychological one. Case in point, on a recent episode of BBC’s Homes Under the Hammer, two guys – Steven and Simon bought a property at auction. The property was in relatively good condition but needed some work done. The catalogue guide price for the […]
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The 3 Laws of Human Behaviour
Several months ago I read a great article by Aline Holzwarth from the Center for Advanced Hindsight at Duke University, in which she discusses 3 laws of human behaviour that parallel Newton’s 3 laws of motion. Given the theme of this blog, I thought it would be an excellent opener to ‘butcher’ some of her […]
Delphi DECIDE
Musings of the Oracle